A report examined the consequences for the European Union of global social trends. It identified relevant trends that included: a new global middle class; population growth and ageing; employment and the labour market; and migration. It said many trends were uncertain and would be influenced by external factors. It outlined how the analysis could inform the ongoing work of the European Union.
Source: Stijn Hoorens, Jeremy Ghez, Benoit Guerin, Daniel Schweppenstedde, Tess Hellgren, Veronika Horvath, Marlon Graf, Barbara Janta, Sam Drabble, and Svitlana Kobzar, Europe s Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU, RAND Corporation
Links: Report | Summary | Rand press release
Date: 2013-Dec
A report said that the United Kingdom population was projected to increase to 70 million in 2027. Projected natural increase (more births than deaths) would account for 57 per cent of the projected increase over the next 25 years. The population was projected to continue ageing, with the number of people aged 80 and over projected more than to double to 6 million by mid-2037.
Source: National Population Projections: 2012-based statistical bulletin, Office for National Statistics
Links: Report | ONS press release | Telegraph report
Date: 2013-Nov
The Office for National Statistics began consultation on the future of the population Census in England and Wales. It said that improvements in technology and in government data sources offered opportunities to either modernize the existing Census process or develop an alternative method that reused existing data already held within government. The consultation focused on two alternative approaches: a Census held once a decade, like that conducted most recently in 2011, but primarily online; or using existing government data and compulsory annual surveys. Both approaches would provide statistics about the size of the population, nationally and for local authorities. A Census using existing data and surveys would provide more statistics about the characteristics of the population every year, whereas an online Census would provide more detailed statistics once a decade.
Source: The Census and Future Provision of Population Statistics in England and Wales: Public consultation, Office for National Statistics
Links: Consultation document | ONS press release | RSS press release | Daily Mail report | Guardian report | Telegraph report
Date: 2013-Sep
The population of the United Kingdom was estimated to be 63.7 million in mid-2012, up from 63.3 million in mid-2011. This represented a growth of 419,900 (0.7 per cent). There were 813,200 births – the largest number since 1972. Net immigration of 165,600 accounted for 39 per cent of the population increase. The absolute increase in population of the UK was greater than that of any other European Union member state during the period.
Source: Annual Mid-year Population Estimates, 2011 and 2012, Office for National Statistics
Links: Report | Full Fact blog post | Population Matters press release | RCM press release | BBC report | Guardian report
Date: 2013-Aug
A paper examined methods for producing annual household estimates for 'neighbourhood'-scale areas in England, Wales, and Scotland that were consistent with the official local authority-level household estimates.
Source: Alex Fenton, Post-Censal Household Estimates for Small Areas, Social Policy in a Cold Climate Research Note RN003, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion (London School of Economics)
Links: Paper
Date: 2013-Jun
A think-tank briefing examined the impacts of immigration on population growth and diversity in western European and other high-income countries. Migration had became the primary driver of demographic change in most high-income countries and might remain so. On existing trends European populations would become more ethnically diverse, with the possibility that the existing majority ethnic groups would no longer comprise a numerical majority in some countries. However, it could not be assumed that existing trends would continue, as migration was the most volatile element in demographic change.
Source: David Coleman, Immigration, Population and Ethnicity: The UK in international perspective, Migration Observatory (University of Oxford)
Links: Briefing | Daily Mail report | Telegraph report
Date: 2013-May
Updated projections were published for the number of households in England and its local authority districts to 2021. The total number of households was projected to grow to 24.3 million in 2021, an increase of 2.2 million (10 per cent) over 2011, or 221,000 households per year. This represented a decrease in average household size from 2.36 to 2.33.
Source: Household Interim Projections, 2011 to 2021, England, Department for Communities and Local Government
Links: Statistical release | RICS press release | Inside Housing report
Date: 2013-Apr
The government responded to a report by a committee of MPs on its plans to abolish the 10-yearly population Census. It said that any replacement system for gathering data would take full account of the needs of users, including social scientists.
Source: The Census and Social Science: Government and Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Responses to the Committee s Third Report, Sixth Special Report (Session 2012–13), HC 1053, House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee, TSO
Links: Response
Notes: MPs report (September 2012)
Date: 2013-Mar